But a research study the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services commissioned to identify the appropriate level of staffing made no specific recommendations and analyzed only staffing levels lower than what the previous major federal evaluation had considered best, according to a copy of the study reviewed Monday by KFF Health News. Instead, the new study said there was no single staffing level that would guarantee quality care, although the report estimated that higher staffing levels would lead to fewer hospitalizations and emergency room visits, faster care, and fewer failures to provide care.

Patient advocates said the report was the latest sign that the administration would fall short of its pledge to establish robust staffing levels to protect the 1.2 million Americans in skilled nursing facilities. Already, the administration is six months behind its self-imposed deadline of February to propose new rules. Those proposals, which have not been released, have been under evaluation since May by the Office of Management and Budget. The study, dated June 2023, has not been formally released either, but a copy was posted on the CMS website. It was taken down shortly after KFF Health News published this article.

“It’s honestly heartbreaking,” said Richard Mollot, executive director of the Long Term Care Community Coalition, a nonprofit that advocates for nursing home patients in New York state. “I just don’t see how this doesn’t ultimately put more residents at risk of neglect and abuse. Putting the government’s imprimatur on a standard that is patently unsafe is going to make it much more difficult for surveyors to hold facilities accountable for the harm caused by understaffing nursing homes.”

For months, the nursing home industry has been lobbying strenuously against a uniform ratio of patients to nurses and aides. “What is clear as you look across the country is every nursing home is unique and a one-size-fits-all approach does not work,” said Holly Harmon, senior vice president of quality, regulatory, and clinical services at the American Health Care Association, an industry trade group.

Nursing home groups have emphasized the widespread difficulty in finding workers willing to fill existing certified nursing assistant jobs, which are often grueling and pay less than what workers can make at retail stores. Homes say their licensed nurses are often drawn away by other jobs, such as better-paying hospital positions. “The workforce challenges are real,” said Katie Smith Sloan, president and CEO of LeadingAge, an association that represents nonprofit nursing homes.

The industry has also argued that if the government wants it to hire more workers it needs to increase the payments it makes through state Medicaid programs, which are the largest payor for nursing home care. Advocates and some researchers have argued that nursing homes, particularly for-profit ones, can afford to pay employees more and hire additional staff if they forsake some of the profits they give investors.

“Certainly, facilities haven’t put all the dollars back into direct care over the years,” said David Grabowski, a professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School. “But for certain facilities, it’s going to be a big lift to pay for” higher staffing levels, he said in an interview last week.

In a written statement to KFF Health News, Jonathan Blum, CMS’ principal deputy administrator and chief operating officer, said the study had been posted in error. “CMS is committed to holding nursing homes accountable for protecting the health and safety of all residents, and adequate staffing is critical to this effort,” he said. “CMS’s proposal is being developed using a rigorous process that draws on a wide range of source information, including extensive input from residents and their families, workers, administrators, experts, and other stakeholders. Our focus is on advancing implementable solutions that promote safe, quality care for residents.” Blum’s statement called the study a “draft,” although nothing in the 478-page study indicated it was preliminary.

The study has been widely anticipated, both because of the central role the administration said it would play in its policy and because the last major CMS study, conducted in 2001, had concluded that nursing home care improves as staffing increases up to the level of about one worker for every six residents. The formal metric for that staffing level was 4.1 staff hours per resident per day, which is calculated by dividing the number of total hours worked by nurses and aides on duty daily by the number of residents present each day.

CMS never adopted that staffing ratio and instead gave each nursing home discretion to determine a reasonable staffing level. Regulators rarely cite nursing homes for insufficient staffing, even though independent researchers have concluded low staffing is the root of many nursing home injuries. Too few nurse aides, for instance, often means immobile residents are not repositioned in bed, causing bedsores that can lead to infection. Low staffing also is often responsible for indignities residents face, such as being left in soiled bedsheets for hours.

The new research was conducted by Abt Associates, a regular contractor for CMS that also performed the 2001 study. But the report, in an implicit disagreement with its predecessor, concluded there was “no obvious plateau at which quality and safety are maximized or ‘cliff’ below which quality and safety steeply decline.” Abt referred questions about the study to CMS.

The study evaluated four minimum staffing levels, all of which were below the 4.1 daily staff hours that the prior study had identified as ideal. The highest was 3.88 daily staff hours. At that level, the study estimated 0.6% of residents would get delayed care and 0.002% would not get needed care. It also said that staffing level would result in 12,100 fewer hospitalizations of Medicare residents and 14,800 fewer emergency room visits. The report said three-quarters of nursing homes would need to add staff to meet that level and that it would cost $5.3 billion extra each year.

The lowest staffing level the report analyzed was 3.3 daily staffing hours. At that level, the report said, 3.3% of residents would get delayed care and 0.04% would not get needed care. That level would reduce hospitalizations of Medicare residents by 5,800 and lead to 4,500 fewer emergency room visits. More than half of nursing homes would have to increase staff levels to meet that ratio, the report said, and it would cost $1.5 billion more each year.

Charlene Harrington, a professor emeritus of nursing at the University of California-San Francisco, said CMS “sabotaged” the push for sufficiently high staffing through the instructions it gave its contractor. “Every threshold they looked at was below 4.1,” she said. “How can that possibly be a decent study? It’s just unacceptable.”

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Medicare and Medicaid patients will make up 92% of the market for lecanemab, according to Eisai Co., which sells the drug under the brand name Leqembi. In addition to the company’s $26,500 annual price tag for the drug, treatment could cost U.S. taxpayers $82,500 per patient per year, on average, for genetic tests and frequent brain scans, safety monitoring, and other care, according to estimates from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, or ICER. The FDA gave the drug full approval July 6. About 1 million Alzheimer’s patients in the U.S. could qualify to use it.

Patients with early Alzheimer’s disease who took lecanemab in a major clinical trial declined an average of five months slower than other subjects over an 18-month period, but many suffered brain swelling and bleeding. Although those side effects usually resolved without obvious harm, they apparently caused three deaths. The great expense of the drug and its treatment raises questions about how it will be paid for, and who will benefit.

“In the history of science, it’s a significant achievement to slightly slow down progression of dementia,” said John Mafi, a researcher and associate professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. “But the actual practical benefits to patients are very marginal, and there is a real risk and a real cost.”

To qualify for Leqembi, patients must undergo a PET scan that looks for amyloid plaques, the protein clumps that clog the brains of many Alzheimer’s patients. About 1 in 5 patients who took Leqembi in the major clinical test of the drug developed brain hemorrhaging or swelling, a risk that requires those taking the drug to undergo frequent medical checkups and brain scans called MRIs.

In anticipation of additional costs from the Leqembi drug class, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in 2021 increased monthly premiums for Medicare patients by 15%, and premiums may rise again in 2024 after a slight decline this year.

Such increases can be a significant burden for many of the 62 million Medicare subscribers who live on fixed incomes. “Real people will be affected,” Mafi said. He contributed to a study that estimated lecanemab and related care would cost Medicare $2 billion to $5 billion a year, making it one of the most expensive taxpayer-funded treatments.

In its analysis, ICER suggested that Leqembi could be cost-effective at an annual price of $8,900 to $21,500. In an interview, David Rind, ICER’s chief medical officer, said $10,000 to $15,000 a year would be reasonable. “Above that range doesn’t seem like a good place,” he said.

Whatever its price, patients may be delayed getting access to Leqembi because of the relative shortage of specialists capable of managing the drug, which will require genetic and neuropsychological testing as well as the PET scan to confirm a patient’s eligibility. A similar drug, Eli Lilly’s donanemab, is likely to win FDA approval this year.

Already there are long waits for the testing needed to assess dementia, Mafi said, noting that one of his patients with mild cognitive impairment had to wait eight months for an evaluation.

Such testing is not readily at hand because of the paucity of effective treatment for Alzheimer’s, which has helped to make geriatrics a relatively unappealing specialty. The United States has about a third as many dementia specialists per capita as Germany, and about half as many as Italy.

“Time is of the essence” for the neuropsychological testing, Mafi said, because once a patient’s cognitive ability declines below a certain threshold, they become ineligible for treatment with the drug, which was tested only in patients in the earliest stages of the disease.

Mafi’s study estimates that patients without supplemental Medicare coverage will have to pay about $6,600 out-of-pocket for each year of treatment. That could put it out of reach for many of the 1 in 7 “dual eligible” Medicare beneficiaries whose income is low enough to simultaneously qualify them for state Medicaid programs. Those programs are responsible for about 20% of physician bills for drug infusions, but they don’t always cover the full amount.

Some practitioners, such as cancer centers, cover their Medicaid losses by receiving higher rates for privately insured patients. But since almost all lecanemab patients are likely to be on government insurance, that “cross-subsidization” is less of an option, said Soeren Mattke, director of the Center for Improving Chronic Illness Care at the University of Southern California.

This poses a serious health equity issue because “dual eligibles are low-income patients with limited opportunities and education, and at higher risk of chronic illnesses including dementia,” Mattke said in an interview. Yet many doctors may not be willing to treat them, he said. “The idea of denying access to this group is just appalling.”

Eisai spokesperson Libby Holman said the company was reaching out to specialists and primary care physicians to make them aware of the drug, and that reimbursement options were improving. Eisai will provide the drug at no cost to patients in financial need, she said, and its “patient navigators” can help lock down insurance coverage.

“A lot of clinicians are excited about the drug, and patients are hearing about it,” said David Moss, chief financial officer of INmune Bio, a company that has another Alzheimer’s drug in development. “It’s a money center for infusion centers and MRI operators. It provides reasons for patients to come into the office, which is a billing thing.”

Outstanding doubts about Leqembi and related drugs have given urgency to efforts to monitor patient experiences. CMS is requiring Leqembi patients to be entered into a registry that tracks their outcomes. The agency has established a registry, but the Alzheimer’s Association, the leading advocacy group for dementia patients, is funding its own database to track those being treated, offering physician practices $2,500 to join it and up to $300 per patient visit.

In a letter to CMS on July 27, a group of policy experts said CMS should ensure that any and all Leqembi registries create and share data detailed enough for researchers and FDA safety teams to obtain a clear picture of the drug’s real-world profile.

The anti-amyloid drugs like lecanemab have created a polarized environment in medicine between those who think the drugs are a dangerous waste of money and those who believe they are a brilliant first step to a cure, said ICER’s Rind, who thinks lecanemab has modest benefits.

“People are as dug in on this as almost anything I’ve ever seen in medicine,” he said. “I don’t think it’s healthy.”

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¿Deberían perder este modesto peso extra para optimizar su salud? Esta pregunta surge ante la aparición de una nueva categoría de fármacos para la diabetes y la pérdida de peso que ofrecen la esperanza de poder deshacerse de los kilos de más.

Durante años, los expertos han debatido sobre qué aconsejar a los adultos mayores en esta situación. Por un lado, el aumento de peso se asocia a la acumulación de grasa. Y eso puede tener graves consecuencias para la salud, contribuyendo a enfermedades cardiacas, diabetes, artritis y un sinfín de otras afecciones médicas.

Por otro lado, numerosos estudios sugieren que tener algo de peso de más a veces puede ser protector en las etapas posteriores de la vida. Para las personas que se caen, la grasa puede servir de acolchado, protegiéndolas de las fracturas. Y para las personas gravemente enfermas de cáncer o insuficiencia renal avanzada, ese acolchado puede ser una fuente de energía que les ayude a tolerar terapias exigentes.

Por supuesto, todo depende del peso inicial de cada persona. Las personas ya obesas (con un índice de masa corporal igual o superior a 30) que engordan más corren más riesgo que las que pesan menos. Y un rápido aumento de peso a una edad avanzada siempre es motivo de preocupación.

Comprender las pruebas científicas y la opinión de los expertos sobre los problemas de peso en los adultos mayores no es fácil. Lo que sigue es lo que he aprendido tras revisar docenas de estudios y hablar con casi dos docenas de médicos e investigadores de la obesidad.

Nuestro cuerpo cambia con la edad. A medida que envejecemos, nuestra composición corporal varía. Perdemos masa muscular —un proceso que comienza a los 30 años y se acelera a partir de los 60— y ganamos grasa. Esto es cierto incluso cuando nuestro peso se mantiene constante.

Además, se acumula menos grasa bajo la piel y más en la parte central del cuerpo. Esta grasa abdominal se asocia a inflamación y resistencia a la insulina y a un mayor riesgo de enfermedades cardiovasculares, diabetes e ictus, entre otras dolencias.

“La distribución de la grasa desempeña un papel fundamental a la hora de determinar hasta qué punto es nocivo el peso añadido en forma de grasa”, afirmó Mitchell Lazar, director del Instituto de Diabetes, Obesidad y Metabolismo de la Facultad de Medicina Perelman de la Universidad de Pennsylvania. “Es la grasa visceral [abdominal] [alrededor de la cintura], más que la periférica [en caderas y nalgas] la que realmente nos preocupa”.

Los niveles de actividad disminuyen con la edad. Además, con la edad, las personas tienden a ser menos activas. Cuando los adultos mayores mantienen los mismos hábitos alimentarios (ingesta de energía) mientras reducen la actividad (gasto de energía), van a ganar peso.

Según los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (CDC), el 27% de las personas de 65 a 74 años son físicamente inactivas fuera del trabajo, porcentaje que aumenta hasta el 35% a partir de los 75 años. Para los adultos mayores, los CDC recomiendan al menos 150 minutos semanales de actividad moderadamente intensa, como caminar a paso ligero, así como actividades de fortalecimiento muscular, como levantar pesas, al menos dos veces por semana. Según diversas encuestas, sólo entre el 27% y el 44% de los adultos mayores cumplen estas directrices.

Preocupación por la masa muscular. A los expertos les preocupa más la falta de actividad en los adultos mayores con sobrepeso u obesidad leve (un índice de masa corporal por debajo de los 30) que la pérdida de peso. Con una actividad mínima o nula, la masa muscular se deteriora y la fuerza disminuye, lo que “aumenta el riesgo de desarrollar una discapacidad o un deterioro funcional” que puede interferir con la independencia, según John Batsis, investigador de la obesidad y profesor en la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte en Chapel Hill.

La pérdida de peso contribuye a una masa muscular inadecuada en la medida en que el músculo se pierde junto con la grasa. Por cada kilo que se pierde, el 25% procede del músculo y el 75% de la grasa, por término medio.

Dado que los adultos mayores tienen menos músculo, “si quieren perder peso, tienen que estar dispuestos al mismo tiempo a aumentar la actividad física”, dijo Anne Newman, directora del Centro de Envejecimiento y Salud de la Población de la Facultad de Salud Pública de la Universidad de Pittsburgh.

El peso corporal ideal puede ser mayor. Las investigaciones epidemiológicas sugieren que el índice de masa corporal (IMC) ideal podría ser mayor en los adultos mayores que en los jóvenes. (El IMC es una medida del peso de una persona, en kilogramos o libras, dividido por el cuadrado de su altura, en metros o pies).

Un amplio y prestigioso estudio descubrió que los mayores situados en los extremos del espectro del IMC —los que tenían un IMC bajo (menos de 22) y los que tenían un IMC alto (más de 33)— corrían un mayor riesgo de morir antes que los que tenían un IMC en la franja media (de 22 a 32,9).

Los adultos mayores con menor riesgo de morir antes tenían IMC de 27 a 27,9. Según los estándares de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), esta cifra se sitúa en el rango de “sobrepeso” (25 a 29,9) y por encima del rango de IMC de “peso saludable” (18,5 a 24,9). Además, muchos de los ancianos que, según el estudio, presentaban un mayor riesgo de mortalidad —los que tenían un IMC inferior a 22— estarían clasificados como de “peso saludable” según la OMS.

Conclusión del estudio: “El rango de peso saludable de la OMS puede no ser adecuado para los adultos mayores”. Por el contrario, tener sobrepeso puede ser beneficioso para los adultos mayores, mientras que estar notablemente delgado puede ser problemático, contribuyendo al potencial de fragilidad.

De hecho, un IMC óptimo para las personas mayores podría situarse entre 24 y 29, según sugirió Carl Lavie, conocido investigador de la obesidad, en otro estudio en el que se revisaban las pruebas sobre la obesidad en los mayores. Lavie es director médico de rehabilitación cardiaca y prevención en Ochsner Health, un gran sistema sanitario de Nueva Orleans, y autor de “The Obesity Paradox” (La paradoja de la obesidad), un libro que analiza los problemas de peso en las personas mayores.

Recomendaciones de los expertos. Los médicos e investigadores especializados en obesidad ofrecieron varias recomendaciones importantes durante nuestras conversaciones:

— Mantener la forma física y la masa muscular es más importante que perder peso para los adultos mayores con sobrepeso (aquellos con IMC de 25 a 29,9). “¿Perder unos kilos de más va a mejorar drásticamente su salud? No creo que las pruebas lo demuestren”, señaló Lavie.

— La pérdida de peso involuntaria se asocia a varias enfermedades graves y es una señal de peligro a la que siempre hay que prestar atención. “Consulte a su médico si está perdiendo peso sin pretenderlo”, dijo Newman, de la Universidad de Pittsburgh. Ella es coautora de un nuevo trabajo en el que se constata que “la pérdida de peso imprevista, incluso entre adultos con obesidad, se asocia a un mayor riesgo de mortalidad”.

— Garantizar la calidad de la dieta es esencial. “Los adultos mayores corren el riesgo de sufrir carencias vitamínicas y otros déficits nutricionales, y si no consumen suficientes proteínas, eso es un problema”, indicó Batsis, de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte. “Yo les digo a todos mis pacientes mayores que tomen un multivitamínico”, afirmó Dinesh Edem, director del programa de Control Médico del Peso de la Universidad de Arkansas para las Ciencias Médicas.

— Perder peso es más importante para las personas mayores que tienen mucha grasa alrededor de la cintura (forma de manzana) que para las que pesan más abajo (forma de pera). “En el caso de los pacientes con un perímetro de cintura alto, somos más agresivos a la hora de reducir calorías o aumentar el ejercicio”, explicó Dennis Kerrigan, director de control de peso de Henry Ford Health, en Michigan. — Mantener la estabilidad del peso es un buen objetivo para los mayores sanos con sobrepeso, pero que no padecen obesidad moderada o grave (IMC de 35 o más). Por definición, “sano” significa que las personas no tienen problemas metabólicos graves (colesterol, azúcar en sangre, tensión arterial y triglicéridos demasiado altos), discapacidades relacionadas con la obesidad (son frecuentes los problemas de movilidad) o enfermedades graves relacionadas con la obesidad, como diabetes o cardiopatías. “Ni grandes ganancias ni grandes pérdidas: eso es lo que recomiendo”, afirmó Katie Dodd, dietista geriátrica que escribe un blog sobre nutrición.

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Algunos médicos e investigadores que están interesados en un enfoque más individualizado para encontrar tumores problemáticos se muestran escépticos y plantean preguntas sobre los datos y el razonamiento detrás del cambio radical del Grupo de Trabajo de Servicios Preventivos de Estados Unidos con respecto a sus pautas de 2016.

“La evidencia para que todas comiencen a los 40 no es convincente”, dijo Jeffrey Tice, profesor de medicina en la Universidad de California-San Francisco.

Tice es parte del equipo de investigación del estudio WISDOM, que tiene como objetivo, en palabras de Laura Esserman, cirujana de cáncer de seno y líder del equipo, “hacer pruebas de manera más inteligente, no probar más”. Esserman lanzó el estudio en curso en 2016 con el objetivo de adaptar las pruebas de detección al riesgo de una mujer, y poner fin al debate sobre cuándo iniciar las mamografías.

Los defensores de un enfoque personalizado enfatizan los costos de la detección universal a los 40, no en dólares, sino en resultados falsos positivos, biopsias innecesarias, sobretratamiento y ansiedad.

Las pautas provienen del Grupo de Trabajo de Servicios Preventivos de Estados Unidos, parte del Departamento de Salud y Servicios Humanos (HHS) federal, un panel independiente de 16 expertos médicos voluntarios que se encargan de ayudar a guiar a los médicos, aseguradoras de salud y legisladores.

En 2009, y de nuevo en 2016, el grupo presentó el aviso actual, que elevó la edad para comenzar la mamografía de rutina de 40 a 50 años e instó a las mujeres de 50 a 74 a hacérselas cada dos años.

Las mujeres de 40 a 49 años que “le otorgan un mayor valor al beneficio potencial que a los daños potenciales” también deberían someterse al procedimiento de detección, dijo el grupo de trabajo.

Ahora, el grupo ha publicado un borrador de una actualización de sus directrices, recomendando la detección para todas las mujeres a partir de los 40 años.

“Esta nueva recomendación ayudará a salvar vidas y evitará que más mujeres mueran debido al cáncer de mama”, dijo Carol Mangione, profesora de medicina y salud pública en UCLA, quien presidió el panel.

Pero la evidencia no es clara. Karla Kerlikowske, profesora de la UCSF que ha estado investigando la mamografía desde la década de 1990, dijo que no vio una diferencia en los datos que justificara el cambio. Dijo que la única forma en que podía explicar las nuevas pautas era un cambio en el panel.

“Son diferentes miembros del grupo de trabajo”, dijo. “Interpretaron los beneficios y los daños de manera diferente”.

Sin embargo, Mangione citó dos puntos de datos como impulsores cruciales de las nuevas recomendaciones: el aumento de la incidencia de cáncer de mama en mujeres más jóvenes, y modelos que muestran la cantidad de vidas que podrían salvar las pruebas de detección, especialmente entre las mujeres negras.

No hay evidencia directa de que evaluar a mujeres de 40 años salve vidas, dijo. La cantidad de mujeres que murieron de cáncer de mama disminuyó de manera constante desde 1992 hasta 2020, debido en parte a una detección más temprana y a mejores tratamientos.

Pero los modelos predictivos que construyó el grupo de trabajo, basados en varias suposiciones en lugar de datos reales, encontraron que expandir la mamografía a mujeres de 40 años podría evitar 1.3 muertes adicionales por cada 1,000 en esa cohorte, dijo Mangione. Lo más crítico, agregó, es que un nuevo modelo que incluye solo mujeres negras mostró que se podría salvar 1.8 por 1,000.

Un aumento anual del 2% en la cantidad de personas de 40 a 49 años diagnosticadas con cáncer de mama en el país entre 2016 y 2019 alertó al grupo de trabajo sobre una tendencia preocupante, dijo.

Mangione lo llamó un “salto realmente considerable”. Pero Kerlikowske lo llamó “bastante pequeño” y Tice lo llamó “muy modesto”: percepciones contradictorias que subrayan cuánta subjetividad está involucrada en la ciencia de las pautas de salud preventiva.

A los miembros del grupo de trabajo los designa la Agencia para la Investigación y la Calidad de la Atención Médica del HHS, y cumplen mandatos de cuatro años. El nuevo borrador de las pautas está abierto para comentarios públicos hasta el 5 de junio. Después de incorporar los comentarios, el grupo de trabajo planea publicar su recomendación final en JAMA, la revista de la Asociación Médica Estadounidense.

Cerca de 300,000 mujeres serán diagnosticadas con cáncer de mama en el país este año, y morirán más de 43,000 por este mal, según proyecciones del Instituto Nacional del Cáncer. Muchos consideran que expandir la detección para incluir a mujeres más jóvenes es una forma obvia de detectar el cáncer antes y salvar vidas.

Pero los críticos de las nuevas pautas argumentan que hay verdaderas concesiones.

“¿Por qué no empezar al nacer?”, ironizó Steven Woloshin, profesor del Instituto de Políticas de Salud y Práctica Clínica de Dartmouth. “¿Por qué no todos los días?”.

“Si no hubiera inconvenientes, eso podría ser razonable”, dijo. “El problema son los falsos positivos, que dan mucho miedo. El otro problema es el sobrediagnóstico”. Algunos tumores de mama son inofensivos y el tratamiento puede ser peor que la enfermedad, enfatizó.

Tice estuvo de acuerdo en que el sobretratamiento es un problema subestimado.

“Estos cánceres nunca causarían síntomas”, dijo, refiriéndose a ciertos tipos de tumores. “Algunos simplemente retroceden, se encogen y desaparecen, son de crecimiento tan lento que una mujer muere de otra cosa antes de que causen problemas”.

Las pruebas de detección tienden a encontrar cánceres de crecimiento lento que tienen menos probabilidades de causar síntomas, dijo. Por el contrario, las mujeres a veces descubren cánceres letales de crecimiento rápido poco después de haberse realizado mamografías que salieron normales.

“Nuestro fuerte sentimiento es que una sola talla no sirve para todos y que debe personalizarse”, dijo Tice.

WISDOM, que significa “Mujeres informadas para evaluar según las medidas de riesgo”, evalúa el riesgo de las participantes a los 40 mediante la revisión de los antecedentes familiares y la secuenciación de nueve genes. La idea es comenzar con mamografías periódicas de inmediato para las mujeres de alto riesgo mientras que esperar para las de menos.

Las mujeres negras no hispanas tienen más probabilidades de hacerse mamografías de detección que las mujeres blancas no hispanas. Sin embargo, tienen un 40% más de probabilidades de morir de cáncer de seno y de que les diagnostiquen cánceres mortales a edades más tempranas.

El grupo de trabajo espera que las mujeres negras se beneficien más de la detección temprana, dijo Mangione.

No está claro por qué las mujeres negras tienen más probabilidades de sufrir cánceres de mama más letales, pero las investigaciones apuntan a disparidades en el tratamiento.

“Las mujeres negras no obtienen un seguimiento de las mamografías tan rápido ni un tratamiento adecuado tan rápido”, dijo Tice. “Eso es lo que realmente impulsa las discrepancias en la mortalidad”.

También continúa el debate sobre la detección en mujeres de 75 a 79 años. El grupo de trabajo optó por no pedir pruebas de detección de rutina en el grupo de mayor edad porque un estudio observacional no mostró ningún beneficio, dijo Mangione. Pero el panel emitió un llamado urgente para investigar si las mujeres de 75 años o más deberían hacerse una mamografía de rutina.

Los modelos sugieren que evaluar a las mujeres mayores podría evitar 2,5 muertes por cada 1,000 mujeres en ese grupo de edad, más de las que se salvarían al expandir la evaluación a las mujeres más jóvenes, apuntó Kerlikowske.

“Siempre decimos que las mujeres mayores de 75 años deberían decidir junto con sus médicos si se hacen mamografías, según sus preferencias, valores, historial familiar y de salud”, dijo Mangione.

Tice, Kerlikowske y Woloshin argumentan que lo mismo es cierto para las mujeres de 40 años.

Esta historia fue producida por KFF Health News, que publica California Healthline, un servicio editorialmente independiente de la California Health Care Foundation.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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Some doctors and researchers who are invested in a more individualized approach to finding troublesome tumors are skeptical, raising questions about the data and the reasoning behind the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force’s about-face from its 2016 guidelines.

“The evidence isn’t compelling to start everyone at 40,” said Jeffrey Tice, a professor of medicine at the University of California-San Francisco.

Tice is part of the WISDOM study research team, which aims, in the words of breast cancer surgeon and team leader Laura Esserman, “to test smarter, not test more.” She launched the ongoing study in 2016 with the goal of tailoring screening to a woman’s risk and putting an end to the debate over when to get mammograms.

Advocates of a personalized approach stress the costs of universal screening at 40 — not in dollars, but rather in false-positive results, unnecessary biopsies, overtreatment, and anxiety.

The guidelines come from the federal Department of Health and Human Services’ U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent panel of 16 volunteer medical experts who are charged with helping guide doctors, health insurers, and policymakers. In 2009 and again in 2016, the group put forward the current advisory, which raised the age to start routine mammography from 40 to 50 and urged women from 50 to 74 to get mammograms every two years. Women from 40 to 49 who “place a higher value on the potential benefit than the potential harms” might also seek screening, the task force said.

Now the task force has issued a draft of an update to its guidelines, recommending the screening for all women beginning at age 40.

“This new recommendation will help save lives and prevent more women from dying due to breast cancer,” said Carol Mangione, a professor of medicine and public health at UCLA, who chaired the panel.

But the evidence isn’t clear-cut. Karla Kerlikowske, a professor at UCSF who has been researching mammography since the 1990s, said she didn’t see a difference in the data that would warrant the change. The only way she could explain the new guidelines, she said, was a change in the panel.

“It’s different task force members,” she said. “They interpreted the benefits and harms differently.”

Mangione, however, cited two data points as crucial drivers of the new recommendations: rising breast cancer incidence in younger women and models showing the number of lives screening might save, especially among Black women.

There is no direct evidence that screening women in their 40s will save lives, she said. The number of women who died of breast cancer declined steadily from 1992 to 2020, due in part to earlier detection and better treatment.

But the predictive models the task force built, based on various assumptions rather than actual data, found that expanding mammography to women in their 40s might avert an additional 1.3 deaths per 1,000 in that cohort, Mangione said. Most critically, she said, a new model including only Black women showed 1.8 per 1,000 could be saved.

A 2% annual increase in the number of 40- to 49-year-olds diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.S. from 2016 through 2019 alerted the task force to a concerning trend, she said.

Mangione called that a “really sizable jump.” But Kerlikowske called it “pretty small,” and Tice called it “very modest” — conflicting perceptions that underscore just how much art is involved in the science of preventive health guidelines.

Task force members are appointed by HHS’ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and serve four-year terms. The new draft guidelines are open for public comment until June 5. After incorporating feedback, the task force plans to publish its final recommendation in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Nearly 300,000 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.S. this year, and it will kill more than 43,000, according to National Cancer Institute projections. Expanding screening to include younger women is seen by many as an obvious way to detect cancer earlier and save lives.

But critics of the new guidelines argue there are real trade-offs.

“Why not start at birth?” Steven Woloshin, a professor at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, asked rhetorically. “Why not every day?”

“If there were no downsides, that might be reasonable,” he said. “The problem is false positives, which are very scary. The other problem is overdiagnosis.” Some breast tumors are harmless, and the treatment can be worse than the disease, he said.

Tice agreed that overtreatment is an underappreciated problem.

“These cancers would never cause symptoms,” he said, referring to certain kinds of tumors. “Some just regress, shrink, and go away, are just so slow-growing that a woman dies of something else before it causes problems.”

Screening tends to find slow-growing cancers that are less likely to cause symptoms, he said. Conversely, women sometimes discover fast-growing lethal cancers soon after they’ve had clean mammograms.

“Our strong feeling is that one size does not fit all, and that it needs to be personalized,” Tice said.

WISDOM, which stands for “Women Informed to Screen Depending On Measures of risk,” assesses participants’ risk at 40 by reviewing family history and sequencing nine genes. The idea is to start regular mammography immediately for high-risk women while waiting for those at lower risk.

Black women are more likely to get screening mammograms than white women. Yet they are 40% more likely to die of breast cancer and are more likely to be diagnosed with deadly cancers at younger ages.

The task force expects Black women to benefit most from earlier screening, Mangione said.

It’s unclear why Black women are more likely to get the most lethal breast cancers, but research points to disparities in cancer management.

“Black women don’t get follow-up from mammograms as rapidly or appropriate treatment as quickly,” Tice said. “That’s what really drives the discrepancies in mortality.”

Debate also continues on screening for women 75 to 79 years old. The task force chose not to call for routine screening in the older age group because one observational study showed no benefit, Mangione said. But the panel issued an urgent call for research about whether women 75 and older should receive routine mammography.

Modeling suggests screening older women could avert 2.5 deaths per 1,000 women in that age group, more than those saved by expanding screening to younger women, Kerlikowske noted.

“We always say women over 75 should decide together with their clinicians whether to have mammograms based on their preferences, their values, their health history, and their family history,” Mangione said.

Tice, Kerlikowske, and Woloshin argue the same holds true for women in their 40s.

This article was produced by KFF Health News, which publishes California Healthline, an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation. 

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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If it’s nice outside, Crichlow will walk his client, who is nonverbal and in a wheelchair half the time, down three flights of stairs, hauling the wheelchair back and forth separately.

A 49-year-old Trinidadian who lives in Bed-Stuy, Brooklyn, Crichlow works for St. Nicholas Alliance Home Care, where he earns between $17-$18 per hour. His client likes it when Crichlow imitates Mojo Jojo, a character from the TV series “The Powerpuff Girls,” or tries out Cardi B’s signature catchphrase, “Okurr.” “I do different characters that make him laugh. As long as he’s happy, I’m happy,” Crichlow said.

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Yet, when the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent, influential panel of experts, suggested last year that adults be screened for anxiety, it left out one group — people 65 and older.

The major reason the task force cited in draft recommendations issued in September: “the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for anxiety” in all older adults. (Final recommendations are expected later this year.)

The task force noted that questionnaires used to screen for anxiety may be unreliable for older adults. Screening entails evaluating people who don’t have obvious symptoms of worrisome medical or psychological conditions.

“We recognize that many older adults experience mental health conditions like anxiety” and “we are calling urgently for more research,” said Lori Pbert, associate chief of the preventive and behavioral medicine division at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School and a former task force member who worked on the anxiety recommendations.

This “we don’t know enough yet” stance doesn’t sit well with some experts who study and treat seniors with anxiety. Dr. Carmen Andreescu, an associate professor of psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh, called the task force’s position “baffling” because “it’s well established that anxiety isn’t uncommon in older adults and effective treatments exist.”

“I cannot think of any danger in identifying anxiety in older adults, especially because doing so has no harm and we can do things to reduce it,” said Dr. Helen Lavretsky, a psychology professor at UCLA.

In a recent editorial in JAMA Psychiatry, Andreescu and Lavretsky noted that only about one-third of seniors with generalized anxiety disorder — intense, persistent worry about everyday matters — receive treatment. That’s concerning, they said, considering evidence of links between anxiety and stroke, heart failure, coronary artery disease, autoimmune illness, and neurodegenerative disorders such as dementia.

Other forms of anxiety commonly undetected and untreated in seniors include phobias (like a fear of dogs), obsessive-compulsive disorder, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder (a fear of being assessed and judged by others), and post-traumatic stress disorder.

The smoldering disagreement over screening calls attention to the significance of anxiety in later life — a concern heightened during the covid-19 pandemic, which magnified stress and worry among seniors. Here’s what you should know.

Anxiety is common. According to a book chapter published in 2020, authored by Andreescu and a colleague, up to 15% of people 65 and older who live outside nursing homes or other facilities have a diagnosable anxiety condition.

As many as half have symptoms of anxiety — irritability, worry, restlessness, decreased concentration, sleep changes, fatigue, avoidant behaviors — that can be distressing but don’t justify a diagnosis, the study noted.

Most seniors with anxiety have struggled with this condition since earlier in life, but the way it manifests may change over time. Specifically, older adults tend to be more anxious about issues such as illness, the loss of family and friends, retirement, and cognitive declines, experts said. Only a small fraction develop anxiety after turning 65.

Anxiety can be difficult to identify in older adults. Older adults often minimize symptoms of anxiety, thinking “this is what getting older is like” rather than “this is a problem that I should do something about,” Andreescu said.

Also, seniors are more likely than younger adults to report “somatic” complaints — physical symptoms such as dizziness, fatigue, headaches, chest pain, shortness of breath, and gastrointestinal problems — that can be difficult to distinguish from underlying medical conditions, according to Gretchen Brenes, a professor of gerontology and geriatric medicine at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.

Some types of anxiety or anxious behaviors — notably, hoarding and fear of falling — are much more common in older adults, but questionnaires meant to identify anxiety don’t typically ask about those issues, said Dr. Jordan Karp, chair of psychiatry at the University of Arizona College of Medicine in Tucson.

When older adults voice concerns, medical providers too often dismiss them as normal, given the challenges of aging, said Dr. Eric Lenze, head of psychiatry at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the third author of the recent JAMA Psychiatry editorial.

Simple questions can help identify whether an older adult needs to be evaluated for anxiety, he and other experts suggested: Do you have recurrent worries that are hard to control? Are you having trouble sleeping? Have you been feeling more irritable, stressed, or nervous? Are you having trouble with concentration or thinking? Are you avoiding things you normally like to do because you’re wrapped up in your worries?

Stephen Snyder, 67, who lives in Zelienople, Pennsylvania, and was diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder in March 2019, would answer “yes” to many of these queries. “I’m a Type A personality and I worry a lot about a lot of things — my family, my finances, the future,” he told me. “Also, I’ve tended to dwell on things that happened in the past and get all worked up.”

Treatments are effective. Psychotherapy — particularly cognitive behavioral therapy, which helps people address persistent negative thoughts — is generally considered the first line of anxiety treatment in older adults. In an evidence review for the task force, researchers noted that this type of therapy helps reduce anxiety in seniors seen in primary care settings.

Also recommended, Lenze noted, is relaxation therapy, which can involve deep breathing exercises, massage or music therapy, yoga, and progressive muscle relaxation.

Because mental health practitioners, especially those who specialize in seniors’ mental health, are extremely difficult to find, primary care physicians often recommend medications to ease anxiety. Two categories of drugs — antidepressants known as SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors) and SNRIs (serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors) — are typically prescribed, and both appear to help to older adults, experts said.

Frequently prescribed to older adults, but to be avoided by them, are benzodiazepines, a class of sedating medications such as Valium, Ativan, Xanax, and Klonopin. The American Geriatrics Society has warned medical providers not to use these in older adults, except when other therapies have failed, because they are addictive and significantly increase the risk of hip fractures, falls and other accidents, and short-term cognitive impairments.

We’re eager to hear from readers about questions you’d like answered, problems you’ve been having with your care, and advice you need in dealing with the health care system. Visit khn.org/columnists to submit your requests or tips.

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

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Valley County, with a population of just over 7,500, passed levies to support the nursing home amounting to an estimated $300,000 a year for three years, starting this year. And when the Hi-Line Retirement Center in neighboring Phillips County shut down last year as the covid-19 pandemic brought more stressors to the nursing home industry, Valley View Home took in some of its patients.

Thompson said he foresees more nursing home closures on the horizon as their financial struggles continue. But lawmakers are trying to reduce that risk through measures that would raise and set standards for the Medicaid reimbursement rates that nursing homes depend on for their operations.

A study commissioned by the last legislative session found that Medicaid providers in Montana were being reimbursed at rates much lower than the cost of care. In his two-year state budget proposal before lawmakers, Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte has proposed increases to the provider rates that fall short of the study’s recommendations.

Legislators drafting the state health department budget included rates higher than the governor’s proposal, but still not enough for nursing homes to cover the cost of providing care. Those rates are subject to change as the state budget bill goes through the months-long legislative process, though majority-Republican lawmakers so far have rejected Democratic lawmakers’ attempts for full funding.

In a separate effort to address the long-term care industry’s long-term viability, a bipartisan bill going through Montana’s legislature, Senate Bill 296, aims to revise how nursing homes and assisted living facilities are funded. The bill would direct health officials to consider inflation, cost-of-living adjustments, and the actual costs of services in setting Medicaid reimbursement rates.

SB 296, which received an initial hearing on Feb. 17, has generated conflicting opinions from experts in the long-term care field on whether it does enough to avoid nursing home closures.

Republican Sen. Becky Beard, the bill’s sponsor, said that although the bill comes too late for the nursing homes that have already closed, she sees it as shining a light on a problem that’s not going away.

“We need to stop the attrition,” Beard said.

Sebastian Martinez Hickey, a research assistant at the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank, said wages for nursing home employees had been extremely low even before the pandemic. He said the focus needs to be on raising Medicaid reimbursement rates beyond inflationary factors.

“Increasing Medicaid rates for inflation is going to have positive effects, but there’s no way that it’s going to compensate for what we’ve experienced in the last several years,” Martinez Hickey said.

Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, and North Carolina are among the states that have adopted laws or regulations to increase nursing home staff wages since the pandemic began. Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio adopted increases or one-time bonuses.

In Maine, a 2020 study of long-term care workforce issues suggested that Medicaid rates should be high enough to support direct-care worker wages that amount to at least 125% of the minimum wage, which is $13.80 in that state. In combination with other goals outlined in the study, after a year there had been modest increases in residential care homes and beds, improved occupancy rates, and nods toward stabilization of the direct-care workforce.

Rose Hughes, executive director of the Montana Health Care Association, which lobbies on behalf of nursing homes and senior issues, said many of the problems plaguing senior care come down to reimbursement rates. There’s not enough money to hire staff, and, if there were, wages would still be too low to attract staff in a competitive marketplace, Hughes said.

“It’s trying to deal with systemic problems that exist in the system so that longer term the reimbursement system can be more stable,” Hughes said.

The governor’s office said Gianforte has been clear that Montana needs to raise its provider rates. For senior and long-term care, Gianforte’s proposed state budget would raise provider rates to 88% of the benchmark recommended by the state-commissioned study. Gianforte’s budget proposal is a starting point for lawmakers, and legislative budget writers have penciled in funding at about 90% of the benchmark rate.

“The governor continues to work with legislators and welcomes their input on his historic provider rate investment,” Gianforte spokesperson Kaitlin Price said.

Democratic Rep. Mary Caferro is sponsoring a bill to fully fund the Medicaid provider rates in accordance with the study.

“What we really, really need is our bill to pass so that it brings providers current with ongoing funding for predictability and stability so they can do the good work of caring for people,” Caferro said at a Feb. 21 press briefing.

But Thompson said that even the reimbursement rate recommended by the study — $279 per patient, per day, compared with the current $208 rate — isn’t high enough to cover Valley View Home’s expenses. He said he’s going to have to have a “heart to heart” with the facility’s board to see what can be done to keep it open if the local tax levies in combination with the new rate aren’t enough to cover the cost of operations.

David Trost, CEO of St. John’s United, an assisted-living facility for seniors in Billings, said the current reimbursement rate is so low that St. John’s uses savings, grants, fundraising revenue, and other investments to make up the difference. He said that while SB 296 looks at factors to cover operating costs, it doesn’t account for other costs, such as repairs and renovations.

“In addition to paying for existing operating costs as desired by SB 296, we also need to look at funding of capital improvements through some loan mechanism to help nursing facilities make improvements to existing environments,” Trost said.

Another component of SB 296 seeks to boost assisted-living services by generating more federal funding.

Additional money could help reduce or eliminate the waiting list for assisted-living homes, which now stands at about 175 people, Hughes said. That waiting list not only signals that some seniors aren’t getting service, but it also results in more people being sent to nursing homes when they may not need that level of care.

SB 296 would also ensure that money appropriated to nursing homes can be used only for nursing homes, and not be available for other programs within the Department of Public Health and Human Services, like dentists, hospitals, or Medicaid expansion. According to Hughes, in 2021 the nursing home budget had a remainder of $29 million, which was transferred to different programs in the Senior and Long Term Care division.

If the funding safeguard in SB 296 had been in place at that time, Hughes said, there may have been more money to sustain the nursing homes that closed last year.

Keely Larson is the KHN fellow for the UM Legislative News Service, a partnership of the University of Montana School of Journalism, the Montana Newspaper Association, and Kaiser Health News. Larson is a graduate student in environmental and natural resources journalism at the University of Montana.

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

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Julie Rovner
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Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of KHN’s weekly health policy news podcast, “What the Health?” A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book “Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z,” now in its third edition.

Health care was a recurring theme throughout President Joe Biden’s 2023 State of the Union address on Capitol Hill this week. He took a victory lap on recent accomplishments like capping prescription drug costs for seniors on Medicare. He urged Congress to do more, including making permanent the boosted insurance premium subsidies added to the Affordable Care Act during the pandemic. And he sparred with Republicans in the audience — who jeered and called him a liar — over GOP proposals that would cut Medicare and Social Security.

Meanwhile, abortion rights advocates and opponents are anxiously awaiting a federal court decision out of Texas that could result in a nationwide ban on mifepristone, one of two drugs used in medication abortion.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of KHN, Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico, Rachel Cohrs of Stat, and Sarah Karlin-Smith of the Pink Sheet.

Panelists

Rachel Cohrs
Stat News

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Sarah Karlin-Smith
Pink Sheet

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Alice Miranda Ollstein
Politico

@AliceOllstein

Read Alice's stories

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

• President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address emphasized recent victories against high health care costs, like Medicare coverage caps on insulin and out-of-pocket caps on prescription drug spending. Biden’s lively, informal exchange with lawmakers over potential cuts to Medicare and Social Security seemed to steal the show, though the political fight over cutting costs in those entitlement programs is rooted in a key question: What constitutes a “cut”?
• Biden’s calls for bipartisanship to extend health programs like pandemic-era subsidies for Affordable Care Act health plans are expected to clash with conservative demands to slash federal government spending. And last year’s Senate fights demonstrate that sometimes the opposition comes from within the Democratic Party.
• While some abortion advocates praised Biden for vowing to veto a federal abortion ban, others felt he did not talk enough about the looming challenges to abortion access in the courts. A decision is expected soon in a Texas court case challenging the future use of mifepristone. The Trump-appointed judge’s decision could ban the drug nationwide, meaning it would be barred even in states where abortion continues to be legal.
• The FDA is at the center of the abortion pill case, which challenges its approval of the drug decades ago and could set a precedent for legal challenges to the approval of other drugs. In other FDA news, the agency recently changed policy to allow gay men to donate blood; announced new food safety leadership in response to the baby formula crisis; and kicked back to Congress a question of how to regulate CBD, or cannabidiol, products.
• In drug pricing, the top-selling pharmaceutical, Humira, will soon reach the end of its patent, which will offer a telling look at how competition influences the price of biosimilars — and the problems that remain for lawmakers to resolve.

Also this week, Rovner interviews Kate Baicker of the University of Chicago about a new paper providing a possible middle ground in the effort to establish universal health insurance coverage in the U.S.

Plus, for “extra credit,” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: The New York Times’ “Don’t Let Republican ‘Judge Shoppers’ Thwart the Will of Voters,” by Stephen I. Vladeck

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Politico’s “Mpox Is Simmering South of the Border, Threatening a Resurgence,” by Carmen Paun

Sarah Karlin-Smith: KHN’s “Decisions by CVS and Optum Panicked Thousands of Their Sickest Patients,” by Arthur Allen

Rachel Cohrs: ProPublica’s “UnitedHealthcare Tried to Deny Coverage to a Chronically Ill Patient. He Fought Back, Exposing the Insurer’s Inner Workings,” by David Armstrong, Patrick Rucker, and Maya Miller

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

• The Associated Press’ “20 Attorneys General Warn Walgreens, CVS Over Abortion Pills,” by Jim Salter
• NPR’s “A Trump-Appointed Texas Judge Could Force a Major Abortion Pill off the Market,” by Sarah McCammon
• Politico’s “Federal Judge Says Constitutional Right to Abortion May Still Exist, Despite Dobbs,” by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein
• The Becker Friedman Institute’s “Achieving Universal Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: Addressing Market Failures or Providing a Social Floor?” by Katherine Baicker, Amitabh Chandra, and Mark Shepard

click to open the transcript

Transcript: A Health-Heavy State of the Union

KHN’s ‘What the Health?’Episode Title: A Health-Heavy State of the UnionEpisode Number: 284Published: Feb. 9, 2023

Julie Rovner: Hello and welcome back to KHN’s “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent at Kaiser Health News. And I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Feb. 9, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. We are joined today via video conference by Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Good morning.

Rovner: Rachel Cohrs of Stat News.

Rachel Cohrs: Hi, everybody.

Rovner: And Sarah Karlin-Smith of the Pink Sheet.

Sarah Karlin-Smith: Hi, Julie.

Rovner: Later in this episode, we’ll play my interview with Kate Baicker of the University of Chicago. She’s one of the authors of a new paper outlining a new proposal for the U.S. to achieve universal health insurance coverage, something every other developing nation already has, but we have not yet been able to achieve. But first, this week’s health news. We’re going to start, of course, with the State of the Union, which was livelier than usual, with way more back and forth than I’ve ever seen at one of these, and also more health-heavy than usual. I’m going to start with entitlements, notably the president threatening Republican proposals to hold the debt ceiling hostage for cuts in Social Security and Medicare. I’m still trying to decide whether this was intended or not, but Biden nevertheless ended up getting Republicans to vow not to demand cuts in Social Security and Medicare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling later this year. Here is the tape.

President Joe Biden: So, folks, as we all apparently agree, Social Security and Medicare is off the books now, right? And they’re not going to strike … [prolonged applause] All right. We got unanimity!

Rovner: So was this very clever or very lucky or both?

Ollstein: Well, it’s a little not quite what it seems. Republicans have been swearing up and down more recently that they never intended to cut Medicare and Social Security. But when they say “We want to reform it, we want to shore it up,” they’re talking about things that could limit benefits for beneficiaries. So it’s a semantics game, in part. I also want to point out that neither Republicans nor Biden have yet said that they consider Medicaid in that same untouchable category. So that really jumped out at me in the speech as well.

Rovner: Yeah, I mean, if you don’t touch Social Security or Medicare — and the Republicans are trying to say that because this has been used as a weapon for so many years — then basically that leaves Medicaid. And as we discovered in 2017, when they were trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid is actually pretty popular, too, because it takes care of a lot of people’s grandparents in nursing homes. I’m wondering when somebody is going to bring that up. Obviously, over the years, many, quote-unquote, “cuts” have been made to both Social Security and Medicare, mainly to slow the growth of the programs so that we can continue to afford them. Many more, quote-unquote, “cuts” will have to be made going forward. Every time you reduce payment to a drugmaker or a hospital or any other health care provider, that’s a cut, but it helps beneficiaries. So, you know, you say “cuts,” [and] beneficiaries say “they’re going to cut our benefits.” Not necessarily. They may just be making the program more affordable, including for the beneficiaries. I mean, this is just the continuous back and forth of each side, weaponizing Medicare in particular, right?

Ollstein: Well, and until we see actual proposals on paper, like you’re indicating, it is a semantics game — what some people consider a cut might not be what other people consider a cut. And there’s going to be all sorts of rhetorical games over the next several months along these lines. So, I’m waiting till we see an actual black-and-white proposal that we can all pick at and analyze together.

Rovner: Well, as we have seen, there’s danger in putting things on paper, as Rick Scott discovered this week. For those who don’t remember, it was his rather infamous proposal — was it last summer, I think? It was before the election — suggesting that all federal programs be sunsetted every five years and then have to be reauthorized, which would include Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. And that’s not playing well at this point, as I think was predicted at the time, including by us. So moving on, I was also impressed at how the speechwriters managed to combine the, quote, “victory lap” stuff, record Affordable Care [Act] enrollment, Medicare drug price changes, limits on insulin, and surprise bills with the agenda ahead: expanding insulin price caps to the non-Medicare population, Medicaid expansion in the states that haven’t done it, making the Affordable Care Act subsidies expansions permanent. But none of these things — popular, though they may be — are likely to happen in this Congress, are they? … These are the things that fell out of the bill that passed last year.

Cohrs: Right. A lot of those cost money, which is going to cause even more problems this Congress than it did in the last one. And I thought it was pretty informative that the chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee in the House threw cold water on the insulin price-cap idea because it did gain some Republican support in the Senate when it came up for a vote. That was complicated. We won’t go into it. But yeah, it wasn’t a straight up-and-down vote on that policy, really. So I think there was some hope that maybe Republicans could get on board with it. But I think, because it applies to private market insurers, [it was called] a socialist policy, like, they just don’t want government in private plans, even though it’s a wildly popular policy. So, yeah, I think that doesn’t seem like a good signal for that policy in particular and for Medicaid expansion and a lot of these things. Democrats couldn’t even do it when they all agreed or had power in both the House and the Senate. So it’s definitely not a good indication for a lot of these things.

Ollstein: Let’s not forget that [Sen. Joe] Manchin [D-W.Va.] was the one who put the kibosh on the federal Medicaid expansion. He thought it wasn’t fair to states like his that expanded a long time ago and have been paying in a little bit. He thought it wasn’t right that states that were holdouts get a free ride. And the other Democrats argued back that it’s not fair for the residents in those states to be left out in the cold uninsured either. So this will continue. But like Rachel said, not going anywhere soon.

Rovner: So the things that in theory could happen, and these didn’t mostly come up in the speech or didn’t come up very much. But earlier in the day, Biden officials were floating a quote-unquote, “unity agenda” that included a long list of potentially bipartisan health issues, starting with the “cancer moonshot,” mental health and opioid treatment, strengthening the mental health parity rules. Some of these things actually could happen, right?

Cohrs: Yeah, I think especially on the mental health package, I think there was some unfinished business from last Congress, from the Senate Finance Committee. I think that all of these are issues that have been talked about this Congress already. And the leaders have signaled that they might be interested in. But I think there is some daylight here, and we’re still in very much the agenda-setting, throwing ideas out there that are a very vague part of this Congress. And I think actually getting things down on paper and going through hearings and that kind of thing will signal which areas there might actually be some agreement on. But again, spending is going to be a big challenge and there’s just not going to be time to get to everything.

Rovner: I think one of my frustrations is that normally the State of the Union comes right before the president’s budget comes out, usually within a week or two. And this year, the president’s budget isn’t coming out until March 9. So we have this, you know, talk about agenda-setting. We’re going to have a lot of time for people to just yap at each other without any specifics. But speaking of things that didn’t and aren’t likely to happen, the president didn’t talk very much about abortion. And what he did say — like threatening to veto any abortion ban Congress might pass, which won’t happen either with Democrats in charge of the Senate — that disappointed abortion rights supporters. They’re not happy, right, Alice?

Ollstein: Some were not. To be fair, some praised the speech, praised the president for saying the word “abortion.” This was a big thing over much of his career, including the beginning of his presidency. He would talk around it and not actually say the word “abortion,” which the groups felt contributed to stigma around it. And so the big mainstream groups, Planned Parenthood, NARAL, put out statements praising the speech, praising him for saying he would veto a ban, although, again, like you said, that’s a hypothetical. It’s not going to happen. But some other groups were critical that, one, he didn’t talk about some of the very looming direct threats to abortion access in the courts that we’re probably going to get to later.

Rovner: In a minute.

Ollstein: Just in a minute! But they were frustrated that he didn’t lay out more specifics that his administration will actually do to respond to the current loss of access in a lot of the country. They felt that we’re in a crisis moment and he spent less of the speech on abortion than he did on resort fees. That was a sore point for some advocates who I talked to.

Rovner: There was a lot of emphasis on junk fees. And I get why: These are the things that drive people crazy, and, particularly, in times of high inflation. But yes, abortion came very late in the speech — almost after a lot of people had tuned out and stopped paying attention, which I think also made some people unhappy. Well, speaking of abortion, here we are waiting for another make-or-break court decision out of Texas. Alice, this time it’s the future of the “abortion pill,” not just in Texas, but around the nation that’s at stake. How did we get here? And could we really see the abortion pill banned nationwide?

Ollstein: We really could. People have really been sleeping on this case, including some elected officials who were slow to realize the impact it could have. And mainly what people don’t understand is a bunch of states already ban all methods of abortion, including the pill, and then some additional states besides that have restrictions just on the pill. So this will mainly hit blue states and states where abortion access still exists. And so it could really have a huge impact because those states are now serving more than just their own populations. And in a lot of places, losing access to medication abortion means losing access to all abortion because there aren’t clinical services available. And so my colleague and I did some reporting on how the Biden administration is preparing or not for this ruling. They rebuffed calls from activists to declare a public health emergency for abortion. They said they don’t think that would help. While they do plan to appeal the ruling should the FDA lose, the upheaval that could happen in the meantime can’t really be overstated. And not to mention that an appeal would go to the 5th Circuit, which is very conservative, and then to the Supreme Court, which just overturned Roe v. Wade. And so while most experts we’ve talked to don’t think the legal arguments are that sound, you just can’t really …

Rovner: And remind us, this is the lawsuit that’s challenging the 22-year-old approval of the drug in the first place.

Ollstein: Exactly. And so health care legal experts also say that besides the absolute upheaval in the abortion space that this could cause, this would just completely destroy any certainty around drug approvals for the FDA. If anybody could come back decades later and challenge the approval of a drug, how can drugmakers feel comfortable developing and submitting things for approval and making their plans around that? It’s very chaotic.

Rovner: Sarah, is the FDA worried about this case? Has it not been on their radar either?

Karlin-Smith: I mean, they’re involved in the defense.

Rovner: They’re being sued.

Karlin-Smith: Right. I think it is a concern if this is used, right? If the folks who want this drug pulled would win, does it become precedent-setting in a way that you can get other products pulled? Perhaps. Again, the sentiments would not be there for a lot of other products in the way to use it. But it is a bit concerning when you think about judges having this power to overrule the scientific decisions we’ve left to civil servants, not politicians or judges, because they have expertise in science and medicine and clinical trial design and all these things we just would not expect judges to be able to rule on.

Rovner: Well, speaking of more politics, this week — actually, last week — a group of 20 state attorneys general from states with abortion restrictions wrote to CVS and Walgreens, which had already announced that they would apply to become providers of the abortion pill, warning them not to rely on the Justice Department’s interpretation of a 19th-century law that banned the use of the U.S. mail to send abortifacients. The letter doesn’t outright threaten the companies. It merely says that, quote, “We offer you these thoughts on the current legal landscape.” Has anybody sued over this yet? And what do we expect to happen here? I mean, are CVS and Walgreens going to back off their plans to become providers?

Ollstein: Well, the anti-abortion elected officials and advocacy groups are hoping that’s the case. But I think this could play out in so many ways. I mean, one, we have this national ruling that could come down, but we also have a few state rulings that could flip things the other way and force states that have put restrictions on the abortion pill to lift those restrictions and allow it. So now we have cases pending in North Carolina and West Virginia. One of them is by the manufacturer of the abortion pill, saying that states don’t have the right to put the FDA’s hat on their own heads and make those decisions. And the other is by an abortion provider, a doctor who says that these state restrictions hurt her ability to practice and hurt her patients. And so it’s just wild that we can swing anywhere from a national ban to forcing states with bans to lift those bans. I mean, it’s just all up in the air right now. I wanted to quickly point out two other things. A lot of activist groups say they are not counting on the Biden administration to adequately respond to this crisis. And so they’re doing a couple things. One, they’re encouraging people to do something known as “advance provision,” which is order abortion pills before they’re pregnant, before you need them, and just have them on hand just in case. And so they’re advising people do that in advance of the ruling. Interestingly, the FDA does not support that practice, but activist groups are encouraging it anyways. And then the other thing is the abortion pill regimen is actually two pills. And the big FDA lawsuit only goes after the first one. And so people are saying, you know, you can terminate a pregnancy just by taking a few of the second pill, even though that has a higher rate of not working and needing a follow-up procedure. And so …

Rovner: Although it’s still like, 95%, right?

Ollstein: It’s still very effective, but not quite as effective as using the two pills together.

Rovner: And I think it used to be when people would go to Mexico, that’s what they would get. They would get misoprostol, not mifepristone, which is what we think of as “the abortion pill” — and also methotrexate, which we talked about in the context of people with diseases for which methotrexate is indicated not being able to get it because it can cause abortions. But that’s another option there, right? And … it would be hard for FDA to pull those drugs because those drugs do have a lot of uses for other diseases.

Karlin-Smith: Or FDA could, I guess, be forced to take off the formal indication for use for abortion, but the drug would be out there and then could be subject to off-label prescribing, which then could potentially, I guess, impact insurance coverage if you’re using it for abortion. Pivot to if you had to go back to this one-drug regimen while, yes, it would still exist and be possible, I think a lot of providers are worried about the added burden that would create on folks that help people obtain abortion. And this system is just not set up to have enough workers to deal with that more complicated regimen. And it seems like it could end up leading to more need for surgical abortions, depending on how well it works and so forth. So I think logistically it creates a lot more challenges.

Rovner: Yeah, it’s a mess. Well, meanwhile, last issue here, we have a curious story out of a lawsuit in federal district court here in Washington, D.C., in which a judge proffered the notion that while the Supreme Court may have found no right to abortion in the 14th Amendment, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a federal right under the 13th Amendment. That’s the one barring slavery, specifically the restriction on the pregnant person’s personal liberty. As the judge correctly pointed out, the majority in last year’s Dobbs [v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization] ruling may well believe there’s no right to abortion anywhere in the Constitution. But that’s not the question that they litigated. Is this potentially an avenue that abortion rights advocates are going to explore?

Ollstein: I am not hearing a lot of hope being placed on this. If it goes anywhere, it would go back to the same Supreme Court that just ruled last year. And so abortion rights advocates are not optimistic about this strategy, but I think it’s a good indication of really both sides right now just trying to get as creative as possible and explore every legal avenue in the U.S. Constitution, in state constitutions, things where it never says the word abortion, but you could interpret it a certain way. I think that’s what we’re seeing right now. And so it’s really interesting to see where it goes.

Rovner: We are literally at the point where everybody is throwing whatever they can against the wall and seeing what sticks. All right. Well, let us turn to the federal research establishment. Late last month, a panel of advisers recommended a set of policies to strengthen oversight of so-called gain-of-function research that could inadvertently cause new pandemics. This was also one of the subjects of the first House hearing that called leading federal public health officials up on the carpet. What do we learn from the hearing? And has the federal government actually been funding gain-of-function research, or do we even know for sure?

Cohrs: So there has been a moratorium on this sort of research. And the interim director of the NIH [National Institutes of Health] quibbled over the term “gain-of-function research.” And he said we’re talking about a very select part of all of the research that could technically fall under that umbrella term. But he did say that there is a moratorium on funding that right now; there’s not current funding because they are reviewing their practices. And an advisory board did pass proposals and he laid out the process forward for that. So once those are finalized, he’ll write a memo to [Department of Health and Human Services] HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, then it will get to the White House. So there is this bureaucratic progression that these new guidelines are going to go under, and it’s been pretty transparent and public so far. But we’ll see how things ultimately turn out. But I think they are very sensitive to this politically and they are trying to create guidelines that offer some lessons learned from some of the criticism they’ve gotten recently.

Rovner: And I think, I mean, this has become one of the major lines of argument about Republicans trying to figure out where covid came from. Perhaps it came from U.S.-funded gain-of-function research in China, which we don’t know, I don’t think. But there’s been a lot of “Yes, you did”-“No, you didn’t” going on. I mean, Sarah, does this go back to the, you know, politicians playing scientists?

Karlin-Smith: A little bit. And I think at the hearing, a lot of the Republicans who are pressuring NIH in particular on this are not super interested in listening to the subtleties and nuance of the argument. They just really want to make the point and bring up in people’s minds the possibility of, you know, covid being a lab leak, which I think … which hasn’t 100% been ruled out, but it’s kind of on the 98%, probably 99% ruled out by a lot of scientists. And so it was very hard for NIH and those lawmakers to have a reasonable discussion about the nuances and where this research might possibly benefit us in future pandemic prep. What type of precautions do need to be put in place? And I think NIH was trying to strive to communicate that actually a lot of what was recommended in this oversight report is things they’ve been working on and have put in place. But the hearing was designed by Republicans more to land those political punches and sound bites and not really delve into “Are there policy improvements that could be made here?”

Rovner: Well, speaking of civil servants trying to do their science policy jobs, the FDA’s been busy the last couple of weeks, including lifting a ban on men who have sex with other men donating blood. That’s a ban that’s been in effect in one way or another since the 1980s, when AIDS was first discovered. And in the wake of baby formula shortages, there’s now going to be a new deputy commissioner for food. And finally, the agency is asking Congress for new authority to regulate CBD [cannabidiol] products, particularly as more states legalize marijuana in all forms for recreational use. Sarah, this is an awful lot of stuff at once. Big policy changes where they try to hide some of them, or did they just all show up at once because that’s when they got finished?

Karlin-Smith: The food changes were sort of driven by events not quite within their control, and the blood policy, the CBD stuff were things in the works for some number of years now. So FDA is busy, and these are different divisions operating under it. I think the CBD stuff is drawing a lot of frustration because FDA had been working on considering how to regulate this aspect of hemp for a while now. And instead of coming up with a policy and taking action, they’ve rewound the circle; we’re back to square one and putting it on Congress’ issues. So that’s like one area where there’s a lot of frustration versus, I think, people are generally happier that the blood donation process was finally gone through and changed.

Rovner: Yes, the wheels of the federal regulatory process move slowly, as we know. All right. Finally this week, drug prices. Humira — which is a biological that treats rheumatoid arthritis and many other serious ailments, and for which you have undoubtedly seen TV commercials if you have ever turned on your television, because it’s the top-selling pharmaceutical in the world — is reaching the end of its patent life. That will soon provide the first real test of where the Affordable Care Act’s pathway to allow biosimilar competitors — effectively biologics version of generic drugs — whether that will actually bring down prices. Because there’s a chance here that there’s going to be a bunch of competitors to Humira and the price isn’t going to come down, right?

Karlin-Smith: Yeah, I mean, that’s a major concern for a number of reasons that get us back to the broader U.S. drug pricing debate and — including the role of pharmacy benefit managers in figuring out how people get coverage of their drugs. So Humira is one of the first biologics to lose patent protection, where patients actually fill the prescriptions themselves and give themselves the medicine, which is a very different payment system than if you’re getting a biologic medicine at a doctor’s office or a hospital. And so the way that most of the insurers are covering the drug for this year, they’re actually going to charge patients the same out-of-pocket cost in most instances, as if you’ve got the brand drug or the biosimilar. And because, unlike traditional generic medicines, a lot of these, at least initially, they’re not what is called auto-substitutable. So if your doctor writes you Humira, the pharmacist doesn’t automatically give you that generic. So you’d actually have to request a new prescription from your doctor, and they’d have to write it. And if you’re not going to pay less, why are you motivated to do that?

Rovner: When you’re not even positive how much whether the drug works the same way, whether the biosimilar works the same way.

Karlin-Smith: Right. And they think people are a little bit more hesitant. They don’t understand how biosimilars work compared to generic drugs, where it took — again, when the generic drug industry first started, it took people a while to get comfortable. So there are those issues. So, basically, what has happened is AbbVie has given insurance plans and payers’ discounts on their brand drug to keep it in a good place on their formularies. So there will be savings to the broader health system, for sure. The problem is if that doesn’t get passed on to the patients, and AbbVie can continue their market monopoly, my worry is, down the line, what happens to this biosimilar industry overall? Humira is not the only top-selling, big-selling biologic medicine where we want to bring down the cost. So if these biosimilar competitors don’t eventually gain market share and make money off of doing this, why are they going to go back and develop a biosimilar and try and lower the cost of the next big drug? And that’s what people are watching. I think there’s cautious optimism that, as more biosimilars for Humira launch, there will be some pressure for insurance companies to cut deals and lower prices and not just rely on making money off high rebates. But we don’t really know how it’s going to play out. And AbbVie was pretty creative over the years. In some ways that helped patients and others questionable — how much of … like, you know, there’s high concentration of the drug, low concentration. There is citrate-free, non-citrate-free. And that means that not all the competitors are going to be exactly the same in a way that creates as much competition as it seems at first. So yeah, it’s going to be messy.

Rovner: This is the famous evergreening that we saw with drugs. I mean, where they would change something small and get a whole new patent life.

Karlin-Smith: Right. So usually with generic research, you need three direct competitors to help bring the price down a lot. But in the case of Humira, while there’s going to be, probably at least six competitors this summer, maybe more, they’re not all direct competitors for the same version of Humira. So it sort of bifurcates the space a bit more and makes it harder to, you know, figure out the economics of all of that.

Rovner: Well, if you thought that drug pricing was confusing, now we’re adding a whole new level to it. So, I’m sure we will be talking about this more as we go forward. OK. That’s the news for this week. Now, we will play my interview with Kate Baicker of the University of Chicago. Then we will come back and do our extra credits.

I am excited to welcome to the podcast Katherine Baicker, currently the dean of the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and soon to be provost of the university. Congratulations.

Katherine Baicker: Thank you so much.

Rovner: So, Kate is a health economist who is well known to health policy students for a lot of things, but most notably as the co-lead author of the Oregon Medicaid health experiment, which was able to follow a randomized population of people who got Medicaid coverage and a population that didn’t to help determine the actual impact of having Medicaid health insurance. Today, she’s here as lead author of a paper with a new way to possibly provide health coverage to all Americans. Kate, thank you so much for joining us.

Baicker: It’s a pleasure.

Rovner: So your new paper is called “Achieving Universal Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: Addressing Market Failures or Providing a Social Safety Net.” And in that single sentence, you’ve pretty much summed up the entire health insurance debate for, like, the last half-century. For those who don’t know, why is it that the U.S. doesn’t have universal insurance when literally all of our economic competitors do?

Baicker: Well, like so many things about our health care system, it goes back to the history of how it evolved, as well as some things that are different about the U.S. from other countries. If you look at how big the U.S. is geographically, how diverse our country is, how heterogeneous the health needs are. A lot of the solutions you see in other countries might not work so well in the U.S.

Rovner: So … and we’ve basically just not ever gotten over the hump here.

Baicker: Well, I also think we haven’t been asking the right questions necessarily. There is a real debate about whether health care is a “right” or not. And, of course, your listeners can’t see my “air quotes,” but I put that in air quotes because I think that’s the wrong question. Health care is not just one thing. Health care is a continuum of things. And if we just boil it down to should people have access to care or not, that doesn’t let us engage with the hard question of how much care we want to provide to everyone and how we’re going to pay for it.

Rovner: So I know a lot of people assume that the Affordable Care Act would — I’ll use my air quotes — “fix” the U.S. health insurance problem. And it has gone a long way to cover a lot of previously uninsured people. But who are the rest of the uninsured and why don’t they have coverage? It’s not necessarily who you think, right?

Baicker: That’s right. And, you know, the ACA, or Obamacare, actually made a lot of headway in covering big swaths of the uninsured population. There was a lot of discussion about health insurance exchanges, but actually more people were covered by Medicaid expansions than by health insurance exchanges. But both of those, as well as letting young people up to age 26 get on their parents’ policies. All of this chipped away at the ranks of the uninsured, but it left, for example, undocumented immigrants uninsured and also the vast majority of the uninsured people in the U.S. are already eligible for either a public program or heavily subsidized private insurance. And we have a problem of takeup and availability, not just affordability.

Rovner: So let’s get to your proposal. It’s not really that different from things that either we’ve tried in some parts of our health insurance ecosystem or what other countries do. What would it actually look like if we were to do it?

Baicker: Well, if you go back to what I think is the right question of how much health care do we want to make sure that everyone has access to and how are we going to get them enrolled in those programs? I think one key feature is having that coverage be as low-hassle as possible, automatic if possible, because we know that nonfinancial barriers to insurance are responsible for a lot of the uninsured population we still see today.

Rovner: We’ve seen that with pension plans, right? That automatically enrolling people get more people to actually put money away?

Baicker: That’s right. That’s one of the takeaways from behavioral economics is that defaults matter. Meaning what the baseline is and letting you opt in and out makes a big difference because people tend to stick with where they are. There’s a lot of inertia in saving for retirement, in enrolling in health insurance, in lots of different things. And being sophisticated in how we design the mechanics of those programs is important, as well as making sure that they’re financially affordable to people. So one step is making sure that whatever is available to people is as easy as possible for them to take advantage of. But the other is having a much harder discussion about what we want that basic package to be. And when you say “I want everybody to have all of the care that might possibly be available, no matter what price and no matter how much it impacts their health,” that’s more than 100% of GDP. We just can’t do that and still have any money for anything like food and housing and education and roads and all of the things that we also care about. So if we had that tough discussion as a nation, as a body politic, to say, here is the care that we think is really high-value that we think is a right for everyone and that we want to make sure is available to everyone, then people could be automatically enrolled in that default package and have the option to get more care that is more expensive and maybe a little less effective, but still worth it to them that they purchase on their own. And that opens up a whole host of other questions and ethical dilemmas that I’m sure you’re going to want to ask about.

Rovner: But it also — as a lot of people are concerned, that something like “Medicare for All” would eliminate the incentive to innovate new kinds of care. I mean, obviously, there’s this race to figure out, you know, a drug to treat Alzheimer’s and that if the federal government were to basically set prices for everything, that there would be no more innovation incentive. You actually address that here, right?

Baicker: Yes. And I’m so glad you raised that concern, because there are many challenges to having a monolithic one-size-fits-all Medicare for All type plan. One of them is, you know, affordability for the system and accessibility. But another is the dulled incentive for innovation and the dulled drive towards having new medicines and new treatments available. Medicare is very slow to innovate. It took 40-plus years for Medicare to include prescription drugs at all. And that was because when Medicare was formed in the Sixties, prescription medicine wasn’t a very important part of health care. It wasn’t a very expensive part of health care, there just weren’t that many drugs to treat people. Well, now those medicines are crucial to health and well-being. And Medicare finally added a prescription drug benefit in 2005. But that was a long lag, and that’s just one example. So I think having some fundamental access to care that we know is of high value for everyone could be coupled with having the option to purchase more generous insurance that covers more things. And that private insurance layered on top would really provide the financial incentives for continued innovation. It acknowledges the reality that in a world of scarce resources, higher-income people are going to have more health care than lower-income people. And that is an ugly reality and one that we ought to grapple with ethically, and as a matter of public policy priorities. I would argue we’re already rationing care. It is not possible for public programs to pay for all care for all people, no matter what the price, no matter what the health benefit, and being intentional about defining what it is we’re going to cover with public dollars and then letting people buy more care with private dollars is a way perhaps to make a financially sustainable system that also promotes innovation.

Rovner: And this isn’t really new. I mean, lots of other countries do this. I was in Switzerland a decade ago, and I remember that they … their extra-benefit package includes things like single rooms in hospitals and homeopathic medicine and things that I’m not sure we would end up putting into our top-up plans, but it’s something that’s important to them.

Baicker: Yes. And when people point to our European counterparts and say, look, they all have single-payer. In fact, a lot of them have a hybrid system like the one that we’re describing. And it’s important to differentiate: We’re talking about a basic plan that’s available for everyone. That doesn’t mean that it only covers cheap things. It should only cover high-value things. But some cheap things are incredibly ineffective and low-value, and some expensive things are really important for health and very high-value. So it’s about the value of the dollar spent in terms of producing health, not whether it’s expensive or cheap. And so when you think about having a top-up plan, it shouldn’t be about billing cost sharing that, you know, lower-income people are exposed to in the basic plan. It should be about adding services that are of less health importance but still valuable to the people purchasing them.

Rovner: Obviously, the biggest issue here is going to be who’s going to make that determination? I’m old enough to remember fights over the ACA, death panels, and the independent Medicare advisory board that never happened. In fact, there were a lot of these, you know, we’re going to appoint experts. And it never happened because none of the experts ever wanted to be on these panels. How do you overcome that hurdle of actually grappling with the decision of what should be covered?

Baicker: Yes, the devil is always in the details for these things, and you put your finger on a really important one where we haven’t provided a robust answer, and our analysis is meant to highlight the importance of making these hard decisions and the value of this framework. But we don’t have a magic bullet for this. I would argue that having Congress make this decision every year is a recipe for lobbying and decision-making that doesn’t actually line up with value. There’s an opportunity perhaps to have a panel of experts who, as you note, is just a hop, skip and a jump from being called a “death panel.” But I think we can rely on some clinical guidelines as guardrails on this. And we do have some examples of experimentation in this direction in the U.S. In fact, more than experimentation — if you look at Medicare Advantage, this used to be a small part of the Medicare program. These are private plans for Medicare beneficiaries that are now, I think, pretty soon going to be the majority of plans that people have. And it’s a mechanism for people to choose among plans that have some things that have to be covered, but can then add additional benefits for enrollees, and it can be a little more tailored to what people value in their plans. So I don’t think that’s the answer either. But it’s a proof of concept that we can do something like this in the U.S.

Rovner: So in some ways this would bridge the gap between Republican marketplace ideas and Democratic Medicare for All ideas. But it feels like, since the fight over the Affordable Care Act, Republicans have moved more to the right on health care and Democrats have moved more to the left on health care. You are no stranger to partisan politics nor the ways of Washington, D.C. How could everybody be brought back to what I daresay looks like a political compromise?

Baicker: Well, I’m an economist, as you noted, and that’s notoriously bad at understanding actual human beings. I don’t have any idea for the path forward through the political thicket that we’re in. In some ways, it is a little disheartening to see how difficult it is to do some basic commonsense things. In any complicated system like the U.S. health care system, there are always small technical fixes that need to be made that are just commonsense, that ought not to be political. And it’s hard to do those.

Rovner: We’re lacking in common sense right now in Washington.

Baicker: Yeah. So I can’t say that I’m hugely optimistic about a big change happening right away. On the other hand, I think covid really highlighted to people across the political spectrum how important it is to have continuity of coverage, how disparate our current system is in terms of access to care, how problematic it is to have your main avenue of health insurance be through your employer when a pandemic is coupled with a recession. So I think the challenges and the vast inequities of our health care system were laid bare during covid. So it is perhaps salient enough that people might be willing to consider alternative structures. But I can’t say I’m holding my breath.

Rovner: Well, Kate Baicker, thank you very much for, if anything, a great thought experiment. It’s really wonderful to look your way through … it’s like, oh, we could get there, maybe in another half a century.

Baicker: I hope sooner than that.

Rovner: I do, too. Thank you so much.

Baicker: My pleasure.

Rovner: OK, we’re back. And it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s when we each recommend a story we read this week we think you should read, too. As always, don’t worry if you miss it; we will post the links on the podcast page at khn.org and in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Rachel, why don’t you go first this week?

Cohrs: My extra credit is headlined “UnitedHealthcare Tried to Deny Coverage to a Chronically Ill Patient. He Fought Back, Exposing the Insurer’s Inner Workings,” in ProPublica by David Armstrong, Patrick Rucker, and Maya Miller. And I thought this story was just such a good illustration of the jargon that we use in D.C., of, like, utilization management and prior authorization. And sometimes these terms just feel so impersonal. But I feel like this story did such a good job walking through one patient’s struggle to find something that worked and then just the arbitrary choices that insurers were making, looking at their bottom line to try to prevent him from getting a very expensive treatment that actually did increase his quality of life significantly. So I would definitely recommend, as we’re thinking about insurers’ role in this whole health care cost debate as well.

Rovner: Yeah, it does bring home how the patient is always in the middle of this. Alice.

Ollstein: I chose a piece by my colleague Carmen Paun called “Mpox Is Simmering South of the Border, Threatening a Resurgence,” and it’s about how the U.S. was extremely successful in vaccinating high-risk people against mpox, which for folks who still remember the artist formerly known as monkeypox, the name was changed to reduce stigma and be more accurate. The U.S. vaccination campaign and messaging campaign to the most high-risk populations was really successful and did the trick. But as we learned from covid and every other infectious disease, if you don’t take care of other parts of the world, it could eventually come back. We’re not an island, and even islands aren’t safe. But, you know, this is about a bunch of countries, including Mexico, that really have made no mass vaccination effort at all. You know, some civil society groups are trying on their own, but they just don’t have official government backing. And that’s really dangerous. And it meant that cases are surging in parts of Latin America and parts of Africa. And as we saw from covid, that leads to the development of new variants and things traveling back to the U.S. and other places around the world. So, certainly, something to pay attention to.

Rovner: Public health is important. World public health is important. Sarah.

Karlin-Smith: I looked at a piece called “Decisions by CVS and Optum Panicked Thousands of Their Sickest Patients,” by Arthur Allen for Kaiser Health News. It’s a deep dive into CVS and Optum moving out of, to some degree, business places where they provide home infusion services of perinatal nutrition to people that essentially cannot eat or drink in most cases. And they basically decided that it’s not a great business opportunity for them in many cases. But these are people that really depend on these services to live and survive, and they’re very complex medicines and essential nutrition to get and deliver. And at the same time, I think what really fascinated me about this story is it talks about this dynamic of while companies are getting out of the space where you’re providing this service to people that need these IV treatments to survive and live, there also has been development of these medical spas, as they’re called, where people that actually do not need IV hydration or IV nutrition are essentially being given it for nonmedical purposes. And there’s a lot of money being made there. And it just shows you how some of the profit incentives in our system don’t necessarily align with treating the people that actually need the health care first.

Rovner: Yeah, it’s like the people with diabetes not being able to get their drugs because people in Hollywood want to lose 10 pounds fast. But this obviously is, you know, another life-or-death issue. Well, I chose an op-ed this week in The New York Times by the University of Texas law professor Steven I. Vladeck called “Don’t Let Republican ‘Judge Shoppers’ Thwart the Will of Voters.” And it answered a lot of questions for me. First, how is it that so many suits end up in front of the same judges who the plaintiffs know are likely to rule in their favor, and all in Texas? So it turns out that Texas has distributed its federal judges in a way that in nine districts there is only one judge. And in 10 more, there are only two judges. Obviously, there’s no random draw in those districts where there’s only one judge. That’s what you’re going to get. So we keep seeing some of the same Texas judges, first Judge Reed O’Connor in Fort Worth, and now Matthew Kacsmaryk, a former advocate for a conservative think tank and the only federal judge in Amarillo. Judge O’Connor had the big ACA case, now has a big preventive care case. Judge Kacsmaryk has the abortion pill case that we’ve been talking about. It’s a really interesting piece about how that could really twist justice. But it also includes several ways to fix it. We’ll have to see if any of them actually get taken up.

OK. That is our show for this week. As always, if you enjoyed the podcast, you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We’d appreciate it if you left us a review — that helps other people find us, too. Special thanks, as always, to our ever-patient producer, Francis Ying. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth — all one word — @kff.org. Or you can tweet me as long as Twitter is still up. I’m @jrovner. Alice?

Ollstein: @AliceOllstein

Rovner: Rachel

Cohrs: @rachelcohrs

Rovner: Sarah.

Karlin-Smith: @SarahKarlin

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy.

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KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

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The former human rights activist feared for her life in the political turmoil following the military coup that overthrew President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in 1991. Leaving her two small children with her sister in Port-au-Prince, Nerette, then 29, came to Miami a few years later on a three-month visa and never went back. In time, she was granted political asylum.

She eventually studied to become a nursing assistant, passed her certification exam, and got a job in a nursing home. The work was hard and didn’t pay a lot, she said, but “as an immigrant, those are the jobs that are open to you.”

A few years later her family joined her, but her children didn’t want to follow her career path. When she was a teenager, Nerette’s daughter, now 25, would ask, “Mom, why are you doing that?” Nerette said. Her daughter considered the work underpaid and too physical.

After many years, Nerette, now 57, left nursing home work for a job with the Florida local of the labor union SEIU1199, which represents more than 25,000 health workers. As the local’s vice president for long-term care, she is keenly aware of the staffing challenges that have plagued the industry for decades and will worsen as aging baby boomers stretch the limits of long-term care services.

The U.S. is facing a growing crisis of unfilled job openings and high staff turnover that puts the safety of older, frail residents at risk. In a tight labor market where job options are plentiful, long-term care jobs that are poorly paid and physically demanding are a tough sell. Experts say opening pathways for care workers to immigrate would help, but policymakers haven’t moved.

In the decade leading up to 2031, employment in health care support jobs is expected to expand by 1.3 million, a nearly 18% growth rate that outpaces that of every other major occupational group, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. These direct care workers include nurses of various types, home health aides, and physical therapy and occupational therapy assistants, among others.

Certified nursing assistants, who help people with everyday tasks like bathing, dressing, and eating, make up the largest proportion of workers in nursing homes. In the decade leading up to 2029, nearly 562,000 nursing assistant jobs will need to be filled in the United States, according to a far-reaching report on nursing home quality published last year by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

But as the U.S. population ages, fewer workers will be available to fill those job openings in nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and private homes. While the number of adults 65 and older will nearly double to 94.7 million between 2016 and 2060, the number of working-age adults will grow just 15%, according to an analysis of census data by PHI, a research and advocacy organization for older and disabled people that conducts workforce research.

Immigrants can play a crucial role in filling those gaps, experts say. Already, about 1 in 4 direct care workers are foreign-born, according to a 2018 PHI analysis.

“We do think that immigrants are critical to this workforce and the future of the long-term care industry,” said Robert Espinoza, executive vice president of policy at PHI. “We think the industry would probably collapse without them.”

Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have long struggled to maintain adequate staff. The problem worsened dramatically during the pandemic, when those facilities became hotbeds for covid-19 infections and deaths. More than 200,000 residents and staff members died during the first two years of the pandemic, representing about a quarter of all covid deaths during that time.

Since March 2020, the long-term care industry has lost more than 300,000 jobs, bringing employment to a 13-year low of just over 3 million, according to an analysis of BLS payroll data by the American Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living.

Immigration policies that aim to identify potential workers from overseas to fill long-term care job slots could help ease the strain. But unlike other countries that face similar long-term care challenges, the U.S. generally hasn’t made attracting direct care workers from abroad a priority.

“Immigration policy is long-term care policy,” said David Grabowski, a professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School whose research focuses on the economics of aging and long-term care. “If we really want to encourage a strong workforce, we need to make immigration more accessible for individuals.”

Most of the roughly 1 million immigrants to the U.S. annually are family members of citizens, though some come in on employment visas, often for highly skilled jobs.

On his first day in office, President Joe Biden proposed comprehensive immigration reform that would have created a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers and revised the rules for employment-based visas, among other things, but it went nowhere.

“There hasn’t been a lot of interest or political will behind opening up more immigration opportunities for mid- to lower-level care aides such as home health aides, personal health aides, and certified nursing assistants,” said Kristie De Peña, vice president for policy and director of immigration policy at the Niskanen Center, a think tank.

The Biden administration didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Some local and regional organizations are working to connect immigrants with health care jobs.

Ascentria Care Alliance provides social services, refugee resettlement, and long-term care services in five New England states. With state and private philanthropic funding, the organization is beginning to help refugees from Ukraine, Haiti, Venezuela, and Afghanistan get the supportive services they need — language, housing, child care — to enable them to take health care jobs at Ascentria’s long-term care facilities and those of health care partners.

The group has long helped refugees resettle and find jobs in traditional settings like warehouses or retailers, said Angela Bovill, president and CEO of Ascentria, which is based in Worcester, Massachusetts. “Now we’re looking at what it would take to move them into health care jobs,” she said.

The alliance is applying to the Department of Labor for a grant to scale up the program. “If we get it right, we’ll build a pathway and a pipeline to move at the fastest rate from immigrant to effective health care worker,” Bovill said.

Some long-term care experts say the U.S. can’t afford to drag its feet on putting policies in place to appeal to immigrants.

“We’re competing with the rest of the world, other countries that also want these workers,” said Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute.

Canada, for instance, is going all in on immigration. In 2022, it welcomed more than 430,000 new permanent residents, the most in its history. Immigration accounts for almost 100% of Canada’s labor force growth, and by 2036 immigrants are expected to make up 30% of the population, the government said.

In the U.S., immigrants account for about 14% of the population, according to an analysis of census data by the Migration Policy Institute.

Canada’s Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot aims to identify and recruit refugees who have skills Canadian employers need. In January, after visiting a refugee camp in Kenya, recruiters offered jobs in Nova Scotia to 65 continuing care assistants.

In a December survey of 500 U.S. nursing homes, more than half said staffing shortages have forced them to turn away new residents.

These staffing challenges, said industry representatives, are likely to become an even heavier lift, with more closed facilities, units, or wings, after the Biden administration announced last year that it would establish minimum nursing home staffing requirements.

A government mandate alone won’t solve long-standing problems with inadequate training, pay, benefits, or career advancement, experts said.

“Young people aren’t going to clean 10 to 15 patients for $15 an hour,” Nerette said. “They’ll go to McDonald’s. We need to face that reality and come up with a plan.”

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

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This story can be republished for free (details).